Establishing Fare Elasticity Regimes for Urban Passenger Transport: Time-Based Fares for Concession and Non-Concession Markets Segmented by Trip Length

A missing element in public transport patronage prediction is often a matrix of direct and cross fare elasticities for specific fare classes. This paper employs a combined stated preference and revealed preference data set to obtain this type of matrix, reflecting the market environment for concession and non-concession travelers using public transport for short and long trips. A heteroskedastic extreme value choice model relaxes the constant variance assumption of the multinomial logit model so that empirically realistic cross elasticities can be obtained. The elasticities obtained from the study indicate the level of switching between ticket types and between the car and bus modes for any given change in fare levels or types.